China hits economy growth goal despite Trump tariffs turmoil.
China says its economy grew by 5% last year, as record exports helped Beijing meet its annual growth target.
But the government figures also showed economic growth slowed to a rate of 4.5% in the final three months of 2025 compared to a year earlier.
Beijing had set a goal of “around 5%” economic growth in 2025, despite struggles to boost domestic spending and a prolonged property crisis and the turmoil caused by US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.
While China’s official figures show it hit its growth goal, some analysts have cast doubt on the accuracy of the data.
“The headline [gross domestic product] print came in at 5% for 2025, matching the government’s target, we think growth is weaker than official figures suggest,” said Zichun Huang, China Economist at Capital Economics.
Huang added that her company’s own calculations suggest China’s official growth figures “overstate the pace of economic expansion” by at least 1.5 percentage points.
Also on Monday, Chinese data showed the country registered the lowest number of births last year since records began in 1949.
The total number of births dropped to 7.9 million in 2025, figures from China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed.
Officials said the country’s population declined for a fourth year in row 2025, falling 3.4 million to 1.4 billion.
The figures highlight China’s deepening demographic crisis even as the government tries to boost birth rates by offering couples incentives to have more children.
China reported the world’s largest-ever trade surplus last week – the value of goods and services sold overseas compared to its imports – of $1.19tn (£890bn), driven by a rise in exports to markets outside the US.
Speaking on Monday, Kang Yi, head of China’s National Bureau of Statistics, said the country’s economy “faces problems and challenges, including strong supply and weak demand”, but added that it will be able to “maintain stable, sound growth momentum this year.”
China’s reliance on exports is likely to be tested in the year ahead, as the Trump administration continues to use tariffs as a key economic policy. The US president recently threatened to impose new levies on countries that trade with Iran or oppose his plan to take control of Greenland.
As well as China’s exporters moving away from the American market, China’s economic resilience was helped by lower-than-expected US tariffs after Beijing and Washington agreed a tariffs pause.
While China’s manufacturers continued to boost exports, the country is grappling with a number of issues in its domestic economy.
Beijing has been struggling with an ongoing property crisis and rising local government debt, which has made businesses more hesitant to invest and consumers cautious about spending.
New data on Monday showed that house prices continued to fall in December, as the government struggled to stabilise China’s property market. Prices dropped 2.7% last month compared to a year earlier, the sharpest decline in five months. Property investment also fell 17.2% last year.
“China’s reported GDP of 5% is not surprising given the political incentives to ensure headline stability, but this clearly masks the horrible investment data,” said Louise Loo, Head of Asia Economics at Oxford Economics.
Retail sales grew just 0.9% in December, the slowest rate in three years, although the country’s factory output rose 5.2% in December from a year earlier, beating the 4.8% growth in November.
Chinese leaders have pledged “proactive” fiscal policies this year as they look to increase domestic spending and shift reliance away from exports and investments.
